UFC 131 odds: Donald Cerrone vs Vagner Rocha

With the UFC 131 betting line for Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha, you would think "Cowboy" was bringing his six-shooter to the cage on fight night.
After a torrid WEC run followed by a successful Octagon debut earlier this year, Cerrone is galloping into his 155-pound hoedown against Rocha as a whopping -500 favorite according to Bodog.com.
His Brazilian foe is saddled with a +300 underdog line.
That's a pretty sizable gap considering the grappling credentials of Rocha coupled with the fact that Cerrone has a "Smooth" submission loss on his resume, but until the Pablo Popovitch student proves he can get it done on the big stage, the bookies are sticking with what they know.
Are the oddsmakers calling it like they see it? Or playing it safe? Take a look at how these two lightweights stack up and decide for yourself.

155 lbs.: Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone (14-3) vs. Vagner Rocha (6-1)
Backgrounds (last five fights):
Cerrone:

Record: 4-1
Notable wins: Strangled Paul Kelly in his UFC debut, detonated "C-4" at WEC 51
Notable losses: Choked out by Ben Henderson at WEC 48
Strengths: Great hands, underrated submission game, aggressive
Weaknesses: Unproven against upper echelon talent, Bendo losses hurt

Rocha:

Record: 4-1
Notable wins: Last four wins all finishes but opposition hardly "notable"
Notable losses: Outpointed by Brett Bergmark in his Strikeforce debut
Strengths: Top student of Pablo Popovitch -- that's all you need to know
Weaknesses: Hands leave something to be desired, no UFC experience

Donald Cerrone (-500) vs. Vagner Rocha (+300) at UFC 131.