(FanPost edited and promoted by MMAMania.com)
With just a few days remaining until the most important fight in the storied career of Vitor Belfort, the mixed martial arts world has been on fire debating whether or not he can dethrone longtime Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva.
On Feb. 5, "The Phenom" will have his opportunity to bring the considerable speculation to an end, as he will have 25 minutes to do what no other fighter in the UFC has been able to do thus far -- defeat "The Spider."
Belfort is coming off a victory over former 185-pound kingpin Rich Franklin in a catch weight bout of 195-pounds. That bout was his first inside the Octagon in over four years. His last stint in the UFC ended with a whimper with his losing back-to-back fights to Tito Ortiz and Randy Couture in the light heavyweight division.
Although he coasted along a seemingly mediocre path under the Pride, Cage Rage and Strikeforce banners, Belfort was suddenly seen remerging as the former world beater we saw in the early 2000’s with two stoppages of Terry Martin and Matt Lindland during his time with the short lived promotion Affliction. Those two fights would be his first in the middleweight division and when the organization folded, Vitor went back to his former stomping grounds with a renewed vigor.
After knocking out the previously mentioned Franklin at UFC 103 in September of 2009, a string of injuries forced a long delay of his fight against Silva. When Chael Sonnen nearly shocked the world and took the belt for himself at UFC 117, a rematch was planned and Belfort was booked against Yushin Okami.
One failed drug test later and Vitor was back in business.
Now everything is set and it's finally time to settle it in the cage. So what will the former heavyweight and light heavyweight champion have to do to add yet another title to his collection? Let's have a look at his keys to success:
Vitor Belfort has the skill set to become one of the best mixed martial artists of all time. Unfortunately, he has never harnessed those skills long enough to blend it with mental stability, and the demons in his personal life have kept him from greatness.
His skills are still elite however, holding a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under the iconic Carlson Gracie. Vitor at an early age was so close with Carlson and the Gracie family that there was speculation Vitor would change his name from Belfort to Gracie until some outcry from the family stopped it from going forward.
His grappling is of a high level, displaying that in his bronze medal in the Abu Dhabi absolute division in the 2001 tournament, but he's not exactly know for finishing fights by way of submission.
But Vitor is far from just a submission grappler. He has a black belt in Judo and blue belt in Shotokan Karate. Of all the striking disciplines Vitor possesses though, it is his boxing that is the most lethal. Of his nineteen wins, thirteen have come by way of knockout or technical knockout.
Starting in late 1996, Belfort has faced a very respectable list of opponents. We're talking about fighters like Randy Couture, Wanderlei Silva, Tito Ortiz, Chuck Liddell and Kazushi Sakuraba. He's faced guys heavier than him in Heath Herring, Alistair Overeem and Dan Henderson.
Now he will go up against a fighter that is undoubtedly the most well-rounded of his career.
Without further ado, here are the ways I see "The Phenom" gaining the upper hand in his title fight against Anderson Silva.
Game planning and putting pressure on Anderson
Vitor clearly will be the best striker Silva has ever faced. However, any threat Belfort presents Silva, he will be faced with in turn.
However, Belfort is working with Randy Couture in the lead up to this fight. We all know how much of a "Natural" strategist "Captain America" is and how proficient he is at putting together an effective gameplan. Belfort and his team will have to realize the tremendous reach advantage that Anderson will enjoy during the fight.
Much can be learned from the Chael Sonnen fight. In particular, two significant points in the fight. Once when Chael rocks Anderson and the other when Anderson rocks Chael.
Previously, in my post about Anderson’s keys to victories I went over the diversity in Anderson’s arsenal. The elbow strike is one of those diverse strikes; however the way in which it occurred is the most important part. Chael allows Anderson to use his reach to gauge outside the pocket and lunge in at the most opportune moment.
Not only that, he also feinted a leg kick which Chael tried checking and defending leaving him off balance and unprotected. From there, Anderson uses his superior reach to launch an elbow right down the pipe, landing cleanly and rocking Sonnen.
In order to keep anything of that sort from happening, it will require patience and crisp defensive striking. Rest assured, Anderson will land leg kicks, which he hopes to open up Belfort’s guard. Vitor has to keep smart and stay away from trading in the pocket. Much like the failure of Sean Sherk against BJ Penn, Vitor will be picked off coming in to try and get within distance to land on Anderson.
Belfort also has to be very accurate when he jumps into range for Anderson. If he doesn’t land, he's going to be in immediate danger. If he can stay on the outside and play a smart chess match standing, he has all the tools, including speed, to beat Anderson standing up.
When Chael landed this flush hook on Anderson’s chin, it wasn’t because Chael was the more elite striker. It was because he pressured Anderson, he feinted while outside Silva's range and when Anderson bit on it, he unloaded by lunging into striking range with a crisp and accurate strike.
Again, Chael is far from an elite striker and Vitor actually happens to be exactly that. If he can wade patiently outside of Anderson’s range and throw feints and leg kicks he can wait for the moment to unleash a strike that will rock the champion. If he does it will take much more as was seen when he recovered very quickly in the Sonnen fight.
This goes hand in hand with the game plan Vitor will have to have to keep the pressure on Anderson. By doing so, he will disallow Anderson from getting loose, opening up his arsenal and keeping him from attaining an effective base. He will always be the more alert striker and will always have Anderson second guessing unlike most, if not all of Anderson’s previous opponents.
Crisp, straight punches and knowing you will be hit
Vitor has blazing fast hands. Throughout his career, we have seen him use them to overwhelm guys from Wanderlei Silva to Matt Lindland. There is no doubt his hands are awesome. But rest assured, skill alone will not get him through.
Vitor will not only have to keep pressure on Anderson but he will have to land often and powerful. He will have to be able to walk forward landing accurate strikes with the knowledge that he will be getting hit in the process. Anderson is too good of a counter puncher not to land strikes. However, by repeatedly tagging Anderson, it will drain some power, accuracy and balance out of his strikes (and his base) and by doing so it will make each punch less dangerous. He will also have to use very good head movement so that it lessens the simplicity of punches landing flush.
Vintage Vitor Belfort. Throwing seventeen plus punches as he chases Wanderlei across the octagon en route to a stoppage victory. Of course the styles of both Silva’s are vastly different but one thing from this gif is a sign for me of Belfort’s ability.
Vitor doesn’t land all the punches he throws but he is so fast that once Wand is off balance he has no hope of stopping the blitzing Belfort. If Anderson misses on a punch Vitor can make him pay. Now, in this scenario it is very likely Anderson will have the skills to punch back as he retreats but it will be a lose-lose situation if he does.
If he chooses to try and punch back Vitor pressing forward is scary fast, he will eat punch after punch and if landed flush any one will rock Anderson and any punch there after may be the final blow of the fight. Unlike Chael who wobbled Anderson, an attack of this magnitude will definitely endanger the champ of his first stoppage via strikes.
If Anderson decides to retreat and block, Vitor will be able to force him straight backwards much like Wand until he has no place to go along the fence or will cut off angles and continue to swarm while he is in zero danger of being countered. The power and speed of Vitor Belfort can easily overwhelm any opponent who makes the mistake in the striking game to allow Belfort to get the upper hand.
First and foremost, most of you who have read all of my fanposts know how big a fan I am of the body shot and Nick Diaz. Diaz is never a stranger to delivering body shots which was seen as recent as this past weekend against Cyborg Santos. The body shot is a underutilized tool in the sport and when it is used it is often the most devastating of strikes.
Since Belfort is most likely the best striker Anderson has ever met inside the Octagon, he is easily the most dangerous in terms of power and accuracy. What that can mean is a body shot could prove lethal to someone who isn’t used to taking such shots in his last twelve plus fights.
Belfort, when throwing feints and landing strikes on Anderson’s face, will force him to cover up more often. One flush strike with some power will keep Silva from his typical hands besides his waist fighting stance. And when that moment comes Belfort can do a number of things.
He can feint up high and then hit a hooking body shot, or he can land a combination. Possibly something like jab, jab, straight and the body shot. Landing an effective body shot will now open up a power strike up high which we all know Belfort can turn into a knockout blow.
The uppercut is another underutilized strike in the sport. For as much dancing and ducking as Anderson does it would be a strike I would assume Vitor has practiced. It also happens to pack in a lot of power, something Vitor is looking for to finish the fight.
The upper cut and body shot …. Finding new angles
Anthony Rea and Terry Martin are far from world beaters mind you, but just look at the stopping power of a well timed Vitor Belfort uppercut. In both gifs the uppercut is the decisive blow that ends the fight.
In the first gif against Anthony Rea, Belfort catches Rea wading in and ducking in. This is something Anderson does often. He will often times duck his head as to avoid punches. If Vitor can time it or catch him it will be a significant strike. What Vitor does right here is he steps to his side and angles his body before the uppercut. He creates an angle that is hard to defend and by doing so he gets right through Rea’s guard and straight into his face.
The Terry Martin knockout is much more significant to me in this upcoming fight. Notice immediately that Vitor is not standing in front of Martin but instead at an angle almost towards his side. Creating an angle is very smart going up against Anderson as most people who have stood in front of him have been hurt very badly.
Vitor lands with a lead uppercut, let me say that again. Vitor lands with a lead uppercut. Leading with something other then a jab is not a bad thing, it actually is the golden opportunity many fighters miss out on. Leading with the jab is predictable, and by leading with something else keeps your opponent second guess. Lead with the jab 70% of the time, a lead hook 25% and an uppercut 5% of the time. Those are just my numbers in this scenario mind you but by mixing it up allows you to have a more diverse arsenal as well as an unpredictable game plan. It is harder to time and gauge and much easier to guess wrong on and pay big.
Creating angles and hitting different strikes at different angles will take Anderson out of his comfort zone thus allowing Vitor to get into a rhythm and ultimately pick his shots towards a victory.
The grappling game
May people forget that Vitor is a legit black belt in jiu-jitsu and judo as well as a very good positional wrestler. As Nate Marquadt, Dan Henderson, Chael Sonnen and Travis Lutter have all shown us, Anderson Silva, at times, has been very sloppy in his transitions and wrestling defense.
Most importantly, Lutter who was able to gain the full mount in his fight with Silva, Belfort will be more then able to fend off submission attempts from his fellow black belt opponent. While facing his share of wrestlers and grapplers, Belfort has been submitted just once in his entire career. If he is able to create a scramble or take the champion down, he will have his chance to do what Henderson and Sonnen could not -- transition.
While competing in ADCC, Vitor has earned his respect as a grappler even though his mystique has been his legendary speed and striking. If Anderson leaves openings the way he did in his past which includes a triangle choke loss while being mounted in his Pride days Vitor will have the skills to pass and put Anderson in dangerous spots.
The clip above shows very little except that I believe this can be a position we see Anderson in on Saturday. If Belfort is able to take this fight to the ground and pass Anderson’s guard he will be in position to posture up much like Lutter did and deliver brutal strikes from a dominant position.
If he doesn’t finish Anderson from that position, it is very likely that if mounted Anderson will scramble or give up his back. Either way Vitor’s jiu-jitsu and grappling will be tested. While I believe Anderson has some of the slickest jiu-jitsu in the world, I firmly believe if he makes a mistake Belfort is the man to exploit it.
Killer instinct and the ability to finish fights
Only four of the nineteen victories in Vitor’s career have come by way of judge’s decision. Obviously, "The Phenom" knows how to finish fights. But will he have the chance to finish on Saturday? If he does, will he unleash the brutal power he has demonstrated in the past?
Not only does Belfort absolutely rock Marvin Eastman with a monster knee but he unleashes a flurry of ferocious ground and pound as well. He doesn’t give Eastman a second or an inch to breathe or recover and mauls him from inside an open guard that forces the referee to save Eastman from the onslaught.
Will Anderson get rocked by a punch like he did against Chael? Or will he allow Belfort to gain dominant position much like the way Lutter was able to? If he is, Vitor has the power and aggression to not only recognize the opportunity but also the skills to pounce on his prey and finish the fight.
Those are my keys to Vitor dethroning Anderson Silva and taking the Middleweight title, tell me what you Maniac’s think. Will he win? And if so what will be the deciding factors?
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