Post-Penn Depression – Can 155 Survive?

Ever since he returned to the division to seek revenge against Jens Pulver in 2007, B.J. Penn has undoubtedly been the cornerstone of the UFC’s 155 pound weight class. But with ‘The Prodigy’ once again exploring pastures new at 170 pounds, can the likes of Frankie Edgar, Gray Maynard and Anthony Pettis take up the mantle?
First of all an interesting little fact for all you MMA trivia nuts out there: UFC 125 was the first time in UFC history that a 155 pound bout not featuring BJ Penn headlined a UFC PPV. It was a litmus test for the division in the post-Penn era; would Frankie Edgar, the man who toppled the mighty ‘Prodigy’ not once, but twice, be able to carry the torch?
New Jersey’s Edgar may have stolen Penn’s thunder, but he failed to capture the spark that made BJ the perfect front man for the 155 pound division. Granted, Penn never managed to crack the ‘mega-star’ glass-ceiling in the vein of Brock Lesnar, ‘Rampage’ Jackson or George St Pierre, but the numbers don’t lie, and cards headlined by the Hawaiian always did good business.
So back to the trivia; UFC 125 was the first opportunity for the lightweight division to prove its worth beyond fights featuring its talismanic former champion. Unfortunately the results were far from inspirational, with the January 1^st event doing some disappointing numbers. PPV buy estimates range from a woeful high of 300,000 to a depressing low of 270,000 according to Dave Meltzer of The Wrestling Observer; the lowest buyrate for a UFC title bout in five years. The live gate made for further miserable reading; of the 12,874 fans in attendance, only 6,978 paid for their tickets. 5,896 seats were ‘comped’ (given away as gratuities, in competitions or to sponsors/associates of the promotion/fighters) and another 1,077 remained empty. That’s right, the UFC were left with over a thousand tickets that they couldn’t even give away.
It’s a damning appraisal of the post-Penn lightweight division’s ability to capture the interest, and more importantly the dollars, of the UFC fanbase. Specifically it reflects badly on Edgar, who failed to produce the goods in his first shot at headlining a PPV; with all due respect it was Penn, Toney and Couture’s names up in lights for UFC 118.
Perhaps it’s slightly unfair to lay the blame solely at Edgar’s feet. There were a number of mitigating factor at play; Shane Carwin and Roy Nelson were originally pencilled in for the co-main event before the former pulled out to get back surgery. A featherweight title fight pitting Josh Grispi and rising star Jose Aldo was similarly scratched when the champion withdrew due to complications with ‘compressed vertebrae’. The eventual co-main event of Chris Leben vs Brian Stann may have looked like a barn-burner on paper, but it was hardly the kind of fight that convinces an ‘on the fence’ fight fan to part with their cash money.
Pull outs weren’t the only problem; the date of UFC 125 was itself a handicap. Selling fight tickets to the 18-35 demographic on what is historically the most hangover-laden day of the year is not the easiest of pitches. On top of that, with January 1^st being a national holiday, there was plenty of competition for the dollar of the entertainment-seeking public.
Besides, this was only Edgar’s first post-Penn title defence and his first shot at carrying the ball. And in Gray Maynard, he didn’t exactly have a Chael Sonnen-esque opponent to help drum up interest in the fight. Maybe we should cut ‘The Answer’ some slack; after all, everybody has to start somewhere, right?
For all we know Edgar could fight on undefeated for the next ten years, ending his career as the most dominant lightweight the sport has ever seen; but wins and losses aren’t the issue here. The issue is perception; currently, UFC fans don’t perceive Edgar to be the strong, dominant champion that they saw in Penn. In a fast-moving sport like MMA, where a reputation can be made or destroyed by a single performance, few fighters get a second chance.
People are already pointing to the super-stacked undercard of the UFC 130 rematch between Edgar and Maynard as evidence of the UFC’s lack of faith in the fight making money. ‘Rampage’ Jackson is always good for adding a couple of hundred thousand buys onto a PPV, and his mouth-watering clash with Thiago Silva, plus the Frank Mir/Roy Nelson undercard bout, will no doubt see UFC 130 eclipse 125 at the live and PPV box offices.
While nay-sayers will point to the bolstering of the undercard as a sign of the UFC’s lack of faith in Edgar and Maynard, they are severely underestimating the promotion’s marketing savvy. By slotting Edgar and Maynard above such notables as Jackson, Nelson and Carwin, the promotion is telling the general public that they are more important. It’s a tactic they’ve used previously in the Sylvia/Arlovski heavyweight championship years; eventually, perception becomes reality.
Of course, the fate and fortunes of an entire division can’t (and shouldn’t) rest on the shoulders of one or two men, but for a weight class that is literally overflowing with talent, 155 is almost barren of stars. Perhaps it’s a testament to just how competitive the division is, but none the less, when everyone is beating everyone else, building dominant stars on impressive winning streaks is a tough task.
The likes of Kenny Florian and Clay Guida have struggled against the upper echelons of the weight class and seem destined to be gatekeepers. Super prospects Tyson Griffin and more recently Evan Dunham have been derailed. Dan Miller is bland, Takanori Gomi is inconsistent, Sean Sherk is past his best and the WEC crossovers like Anthony Pettis, Ben Henderson and Donald Cerrone are simply unrecognisable to the average UFC fan.
The important thing to remember though is that all is not lost. Lightweight is not a division that is dying; in fact, the opposite is true. Compared to the 170-265lb divisions, 155 is a baby. Between 2002 and 2006, the division didn’t officially exist, and aside from Sean Sherk’s bouts with Kenny Florian and Hermes Franca, there was little in the way of relevant bouts until the winner of the BJ Penn/Joe Stevenson clash was awarded a title in 2008.
In essence, the lightweight division as we know it has only existed for a couple of years. As we’ve learnt from other divisions in the UFC, given time, things will find a natural order. As Joe Silva’s famed hierarchical match making tree plays out, the elite, contenders, up-and-comers and journeymen will separate themselves from the pack.
It won’t happen overnight, but with a recently expanded roster, the UFC have all the tools to get it right. If lightweights like Pettis, Henderson, Guillard and Miller are given top billing on stacked cards alongside the promotions A-listers like ‘Rampage’, St Pierre and Lesnar, the casual fan will warm to them in time.
BJ Penn is unique, besides the fact that it would not be out of the realms of possibility for him to return to 155 for another run at the belt, it’s important to remember that he is one of a kind; the lightweight division grew and was built around him for a reason. Will there ever be another one like him? Probably not. Can the 155lb division survive and flourish without him? Absolutely.
It’s all just a matter of time.